Future Change of Northern Hemisphere Summer Tropical–Extratropical Teleconnection in CMIP5 Models*

Abstract Two dominant global-scale teleconnections in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) extratropics during boreal summer season (June–August) have been identified: the western North Pacific–North America (WPNA) and circumglobal teleconnection (CGT) patterns. These teleconnection patterns are of critical importance for the NH summer seasonal climate prediction. Here, how these teleconnections will change under anthropogenic global warming is investigated using representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) experiments by 20 coupled models that participated in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The six best models are selected based on their performance in simulation of the two teleconnection patterns and climatological means and variances of atmospheric circulation, precipitation, and sea surface temperature. The selected models capture the CGT and its relationship with the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) reasonably well. The models can also capture the WPNA circulation pattern but with striking deficiencies in reproducing its associated rainfall anomalies due to poor simulation of the western North Pacific summer monsoon rainfall. The following changes are anticipated in the latter half of twenty-first century under the RCP4.5 scenario: 1) significant weakening of year-to-year variability of the upper-level circulation due to increased atmospheric stability, although the moderate increase in convective heating over the tropics may act to strengthen the variability; 2) intensification of the WPNA pattern and major spectral peaks, particularly over the eastern Pacific–North America and North Atlantic–Europe sectors, which is attributed to the strengthening of its relationship with the preceding mature phase of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO); and 3) weakening of the CGT due to atmospheric stabilization and decreasing relationship with ISM as well as weakening of the ISM–ENSO relationship.