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Forecasting and Management of Technology

Alan L. Porter

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Abstract

OVERVIEW AND PRINCIPLES. Management, Technology, and the Future. Principles of Sociotechnical Change. Technology Planning. Forecasting. Managing the Forecasting Project. METHODS. General Methodological Issues. The Stimulation of Creativity. Monitoring. Basic Tools for Quantitative Trend Extrapolation. Extrapolating Technological Trends. Expert Opinion. Simulation. Scenarios. Economic Forecasting and Analysis. ASSESSMENT TO MANAGE TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE. Impact Assessment: General Issues and the Identification of the Impacts of Technology. Analysis of the Impacts of Technologies. Benefit/Cost and Risk Analysis. Evaluation of Technologies and Their Impacts. Managing the Present from the Future. Appendices. Bibliography. Index.

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OVERVIEW AND PRINCIPLES. Management, Technology, and the Future. Principles of Sociotechnical Change. Technology Planning. Forecasting. Managing the Forecasting Project. METHODS. General Methodological Issues. The Stimulation of Creativity. Monitoring. Basic Tools for Quantitative Trend Extrapolation. Extrapolating Technological Trends. Expert Opinion. Simulation. Scenarios. Economic Forecasting and Analysis. ASSESSMENT TO MANAGE TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE. Impact Assessment: General Issues and the Identification of the Impacts of Technology. Analysis of the Impacts of Technologies. Benefit/Cost and Risk Analysis. Evaluation of Technologies and Their Impacts. Managing the Present from the Future. Appendices. Bibliography. Index.

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Available abstract

OVERVIEW AND PRINCIPLES. Management, Technology, and the Future. Principles of Sociotechnical Change. Technology Planning. Forecasting. Managing the Forecasting Project. METHODS. General Methodological Issues. The Stimulation of Creativity. Monitoring. Basic Tools for Quantitative Trend Extrapolation. Extrapolating Technological Trends. Expert Opinion. Simulation. Scenarios. Economic Forecasting and Analysis. ASSESSMENT TO MANAGE TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE. Impact Assessment: General Issues and the Identification of the Impacts of Technology. Analysis of the Impacts of Technologies. Benefit/Cost and Risk Analysis. Evaluation of Technologies and Their Impacts. Managing the Present from the Future. Appendices. Bibliography. Index.

Key concepts: Sociotechnical system, Technology forecasting, Technological change, Identification (biology), Risk analysis (engineering), Technology management, Index (typography), Emerging technologies

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