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Is consumption too smooth? The case of the United Kingdom

Kerry D. Patterson

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Abstract

This study consider whether, for the UK, the restrictions of the rational expectations permanent income (REPI) model of consumption are consistent with the data and whether consumption is too smooth given innovations in labour income. Some of the findings confirm those for the USA: the REPI restrictions are rejected. However, in marked contrast to the result of Campbell and Deaton (1989), little is found to support the view that consumption is too smooth; indeed there is some support for the view that consumption is too volatile. Some insight is given as to how such results can arise.

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What this paper is about

This study consider whether, for the UK, the restrictions of the rational expectations permanent income (REPI) model of consumption are consistent with the data and whether consumption is too smooth given innovations in labour income. Some of the findings confirm those for the USA: the REPI restrictions are rejected. However, in marked contrast to the result of Campbell and Deaton (1989), little is found to support the view that consumption is too smooth; indeed there is some support for the view that consumption is too volatile. Some insight is given as to how such results can arise.

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Available abstract

This study consider whether, for the UK, the restrictions of the rational expectations permanent income (REPI) model of consumption are consistent with the data and whether consumption is too smooth given innovations in labour income. Some of the findings confirm those for the USA: the REPI restrictions are rejected. However, in marked contrast to the result of Campbell and Deaton (1989), little is found to support the view that consumption is too smooth; indeed there is some support for the view that consumption is too volatile. Some insight is given as to how such results can arise.

Key concepts: Consumption (sociology), Economics, Permanent income hypothesis, Contrast (vision), Consumption function, Econometrics, Microeconomics, Macroeconomics

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