Prediction of Aquifer Drawdown Using MODFLOW Mathematical Model (Case Study: Sarze Rezvan Plain, Iran)

Prediction of aquifer drawdown is necessary for the correct management of an aquifer. The use of mathematical models is one important tool to predict the status of an aquifer drawdown. In this study, we have used the MODFLOW model to simulate the SarzeRezvan Aquifer. After having proven an excellent match between the generated model and the aquifer's natural condition, we used this model to predict the aquifer drawdown. To simulate the change in water head under unsteady state, we used water head data from 2001-2010. The PEST computational code was used for calibration. Water head data from April to September 2011 has been used for verification. The Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) between observed and calculated (by the model) water head is 0.854, which indicates excellent agreement with the aquifer's natural condition. Therefore, this model was used to predict the aquifer drawdown. The results of the model prediction have shown that if pumping is going to be constant for 8 years, the drawdown will be approximately 10.56 m, after 8 years.