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Regional Indexes of Leading Indicators: An Evaluation Of Forecasting Performance

Paul J. Kozlowski

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Abstract

ABSTRACT Indexes of leading indicators are used to forecast short‐run changes in economic activity in many states and metropolitan areas. This article examines the forecasting performance of a sample of such regional indexes over several business cycles. Although these indexes vary across regions, the results show that they do provide forecasts of recessions and recoveries and also exhibit some potential for forecasting quantitative changes in regional employment.

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What this paper is about

ABSTRACT Indexes of leading indicators are used to forecast short‐run changes in economic activity in many states and metropolitan areas. This article examines the forecasting performance of a sample of such regional indexes over several business cycles. Although these indexes vary across regions, the results show that they do provide forecasts of recessions and recoveries and also exhibit some potential for forecasting quantitative changes in regional employment.

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Available abstract

ABSTRACT Indexes of leading indicators are used to forecast short‐run changes in economic activity in many states and metropolitan areas. This article examines the forecasting performance of a sample of such regional indexes over several business cycles. Although these indexes vary across regions, the results show that they do provide forecasts of recessions and recoveries and also exhibit some potential for forecasting quantitative changes in regional employment.

Key concepts: Recession, Metropolitan area, Economic indicator, Business cycle, Sample (material), Econometrics, Economics, Geography

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