2001•European Journal of PhysicsOpen access

Introduction to importance sampling in rare-event simulations

Mark Denny

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Abstract

Monte Carlo simulations are an important tool in modern-day studies of many physical systems. Where unlikely events are to be simulated, the importance sampling technique can considerably ease the processing burdon, without compromising statistical significance. Here a comparison of importance sampling and standard Monte Carlo simulations is given. Emphasis is on variance reduction, and on the simulation gain of importance sampling, which is calculated explicitly for a simple example.

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Monte Carlo simulations are an important tool in modern-day studies of many physical systems. Where unlikely events are to be simulated, the importance sampling technique can considerably ease the processing burdon, without compromising statistical significance. Here a comparison of importance sampling and standard Monte Carlo simulations is given. Emphasis is on variance reduction, and on the simulation gain of importance sampling, which is calculated explicitly for a simple example.

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Available abstract

Monte Carlo simulations are an important tool in modern-day studies of many physical systems. Where unlikely events are to be simulated, the importance sampling technique can considerably ease the processing burdon, without compromising statistical significance. Here a comparison of importance sampling and standard Monte Carlo simulations is given. Emphasis is on variance reduction, and on the simulation gain of importance sampling, which is calculated explicitly for a simple example.

Key concepts: Variance reduction, Rare events, Monte Carlo method, Sampling (signal processing), Statistical physics, Importance sampling, Physics, Variance (accounting)

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