The Relation between the North Atlantic Oscillation and SSTs in the North Atlantic Basin

Abstract The authors use the notion of Granger causality to investigate the relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index and the sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the Northern Hemisphere. The Granger causality analysis ensures that any apparent oceanic influence upon the atmosphere (as measured by the NAO) is provided by the ocean and is not related to preexisting conditions within the NAO itself (and vice versa when looking at the atmospheric influence upon the ocean). Although this statistical technique does not imply physical forcing of one field on the other, it is generally more reliable compared to the simple lead/lagged correlation. Using this technique, the authors find that on seasonal time scales, the preceding NAO anomalies' influence on the wintertime SST field is rather restricted. Conversely, preceding SST anomalies have a statistically significant causal effect on the wintertime NAO. However, the causal relation between preceding SSTs and the wintertime NAO is limited to the Gulf Stream extension; in contrast to the canonical tripole SST pattern typically associated with the NAO, the authors do not find that SST anomalies in either the Greenland or subtropical regions have a significant causal effect on the NAO. These results suggest that the Gulf Stream SSTs have an important influence in initiating disturbances of the atmospheric circulation over the wintertime North Atlantic.