CLIMATE OF SOUTHERN AFRICA

The rainfall over Southern Africa has a well-defined annual cycle with the largest values occurring during summer (October-March). Substantial increases or decreases in summer rainfall can have devastating effects, particularly for agriculture which constitutes up to 25% of GDP in South Africa. This paper reviews recent research pertaining to climate variability over Southern Africa, particularly South Africa. Atmosphere-ocean interaction studies relevant to above- and below-normal rainfall events are highlighted. Linked to this is the predictability of such rainfall events using general circulation models (GCMs). The utilisation of GCMs initialised using predicted sea surface temperature changes in the South Atlantic and Indian Oceans around the African region holds promise for the timeous forecasting of these rainfall events over Southern Africa. The empirical agreements between precipitation anomalies and such meteorological variables such as OLR, etc. are discussed.