Challenges and possible solutions of the time-variant reliability of ship's hull girder

The main theme of the paper centres on the use of probabilistic methods to assess the hull girder bending capacity to be used in a risk-based inspection planning framework. The effect of corrosion wear on hull girder geometric properties is also discussed, and the annual probabilistic distributions and the probabilistic distributions for given time period are built. A new procedure is then proposed for the probabilistic presentation of the still water and wave-induced hull girder hogging and sagging loads as a single phenomenon. Lastly, the rules of the composition law of the constituent variables are used to build the probabilistic distribution of the total hull girder load and the corresponding total hull girder bending stresses. Thus, it becomes possible to calculate the probability of exceeding any given limit of the total hull girder stresses.