Solar activity forecast for solar cycle 23

In this paper, we predict the next cycle's activity and improve the timing of solar cycle predictions. Dynamobased solar activity prediction techniques rely upon two properties inherent in the solar cycle: that solar magnetism oscillates between poloidal and toroidal components; and that there is a degree of “magnetic persistence” in dynamos, which in the case of the Sun, results in the dependence of many magnetic related quantities (activity related quantities) upon the amount of magnetism embedded below the Sun's surface. Using the SODA (SOlar Dynamo Amplitude) index as a measure of magnetic persistence, we predict that solar cycle #23 will reach a mean smoothed F10.7 peak of 182±30 solar flux units (sfu) and a mean sunspot number Rz of 138±30. This is particularly intriguing because the “folklore” is that odd cycles are larger than the preceding even cycle. Additionally, by tracking the equatorward march of solar activity, the timing of the cycle can be better estimated. From this, we estimate that the next solar maximum will occur near May, 2000 ±9 months.