Deterministic Performance Prediction Model for Rehabilitation and Management of Flexible Pavement

A deterministic performance prediction model for use in rehabilitation and management of flexible pavements is presented. The model utilizes the serviceability concept adopted by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) for use in the design of flexible pavements. The serviceability concept is defined through the introduction of the present serviceability index (PSI) that is related to the cumulative axle load applications by means of a performance curve. The performance curve for a particular pavement structural section can be estimated using an incremental solution of the AASHTO basic design equation. The constructed performance curve can be used in several applications related to pavement rehabilitation and management. These applications include evaluating potential pavement design and rehabilitation alternatives using appropriate performance indicators, developing asphaltic overlay design procedure, performing life-cycle analysis and pavement management applications. Pavement management applications include prediction of future pavement conditions and estimation of transition probabilities used in stochastic prediction models. The presented analyses and techniques are potentially useful for pavement engineers and can be used as an effective teaching tool for pavement design students.