Shock persistence in a dual economy model of India

This article examines shock persistence in agricultural and industrial output in India. Drawing on the dual economy literature, the linkages between the sectors through the terms of trade are emphasised. However, different dual economy models make differing assumptions regarding the categorisation of variables as being either endogenous or exogenous and this distinction is crucial in explaining the pattern of shock persistence. Using annual data for 1955–95, our results show that shocks to both output series are permanent while those to the terms of trade are transient.