The Impact of Urbanization and Delayed Childbearing on Population Growth and Aging in China

Urbanization and delayed childbearing in China are likely to reduce future national birth rates and significantly slow population growth for 2 reasons. First urban residents are apt to continue to have substantially lower fertility rates than rural residents. In addition urbanites tend to give birth at older ages and may be more receptive to government efforts to further delay childbearing. These relationships are examined using a multi-regional population projection model that incorporates 3 scenarios regarding rural-to-urban migration and cohort mean age of childbearing based on data from the 1987 One Percent Population Survey. The results show that rapid urbanization accompanied by a gradual increase in the mean age of childbearing may avert about 300 million births over the period 1987 to 2050. In addition to affecting total population size which may be about 260 million persons smaller in 2050 than would be the case in the absence of urbanization and delayed childbearing this reduction in number of births may increase the proportion of the population that is elderly. In particular the projections suggest that more than 1/4 of the remaining rural population in 2050 may be aged 65 or older. (Authors modified)