The Probability of Leaving Unemployment: The Influence of Duration, Destination and Demographics*

This paper examines the influences of a number of demographic characteristics and the duration of unemployment on the probability of leaving unemployment. This probability is found to decrease as the duration of unemployment increases, with married females having the highest probability of exit. Various measures of average completed duration suggest that the longest spells of unemployment are incurred by older males. These appear to be longest for males withdrawing from the labour market. The relationship between the duration of unemployment and the probability of exit is important for labour market policy. Some relevant considerations are also explored in the paper.