1979•The Journal of Portfolio ManagementOpen access

Is the Futures Market for Treasury Bills Efficient?

Anthony J. Vignola, Charles Dale

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Abstract

In a recent article, Puglisi developed and tested a model for evaluating the efficiency of the Treasury bill futures market. He found that the market for Treasury bill futures was not efficient because arbitrage opportunities existed involving transactions in futures and outstanding Treasury bills, although such opportunities have ebbed as the market continued to mature. This paper shows that the summary statistics reported by Puglisi are misleading and may be misinterpreted, that the Treasury bill futures market may be used to increase returns, and that the spot and futures market must be evaluated for such purposes only on a daily basis.

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What this paper is about

In a recent article, Puglisi developed and tested a model for evaluating the efficiency of the Treasury bill futures market. He found that the market for Treasury bill futures was not efficient because arbitrage opportunities existed involving transactions in futures and outstanding Treasury bills, although such opportunities have ebbed as the market continued to mature. This paper shows that the summary statistics reported by Puglisi are misleading and may be misinterpreted, that the Treasury bill futures market may be used to increase returns, and that the spot and futures market must be evaluated for such purposes only on a daily basis.

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Available abstract

In a recent article, Puglisi developed and tested a model for evaluating the efficiency of the Treasury bill futures market. He found that the market for Treasury bill futures was not efficient because arbitrage opportunities existed involving transactions in futures and outstanding Treasury bills, although such opportunities have ebbed as the market continued to mature. This paper shows that the summary statistics reported by Puglisi are misleading and may be misinterpreted, that the Treasury bill futures market may be used to increase returns, and that the spot and futures market must be evaluated for such purposes only on a daily basis.

Key concepts: Treasury, Futures contract, Futures market, Forward market, Arbitrage, Economics, Financial economics, Spot market

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