Improved curve number selection for runoff prediction

The three antecedent moisture conditions used in the SCS (Soil Conservation Service) curve number method of surface runoff volume prediction have been shown to be inapplicable in humid regions such as the Ottawa - St. Lawrence Lowlands. The antecedent precipitation index is an alternative indicator of soil moisture. Using a hydrologic database, calibration curves were developed to correlate antecedent precipitation index to the SCS curve number. Curve numbers were then input to the AGNPS hydrologic model. When compared to the three antecedent moisture conditions in the SCS curve number method, use of antecedent precipitation index as a soil moisture indicator considerably improved surface runoff volume simulations. However, peak flow was generally overpredicted by the AGNPS model.Key words: AGNPS, antecedent moisture, curve number, peak flow, surface runoff, hydrologic modeling, precipitation.