Arrhenius and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Svante August Arrhenius was the first to calculate global climate sensitivity to changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration. He was also the first to calculate the anthropogenic rate of CO2 buildup in the modern atmosphere. There is apparently an inconsistency, however, between the references to these estimates [e.g., Uppenbrink, 1996] and the real numbers Arrhenius derived in his later works. The citations of Arrhenius' calculations are usually based on the work published in 1896 [Arrhenius, 1896]. In this paper Arrhenius reported that CO2 doubling should increase the Earth's mean temperature by 5–6°C. In the same ear, he estimated that it would take about 3000 y ears for mankind to double the atmospheric concentration through the burning of fossil fuels [Arrhenius, 1896]. However, the 1896 paper was not his last publication on the problem of global warming.