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2010•Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism ResearchRequires access

A Seasonal ARIMA Model of Tourism Forecasting: The Case of Taiwan

Yu‐Wei Chang, Mengyuan Liao

Open publisher page 80 citations

Abstract

This paper aims to determine suitable SARIMA models to forecast the monthly outbound tourism departures of three major destinations from Taiwan to Hong Kong, Japan and the USA, respectively. The HEGY test is used to identify the deterministic seasonality in the data. The mean absolute per cent error (MAPE) is used to measure forecast accuracy. A low MAPE demonstrates the adequacy of the fitted SARIMA models. The results indicate that all series with first non-seasonal difference are needed to obtain the deterministic trend in outbound tourism series in Taiwan.

About this research paper

What this paper is about

This paper aims to determine suitable SARIMA models to forecast the monthly outbound tourism departures of three major destinations from Taiwan to Hong Kong, Japan and the USA, respectively. The HEGY test is used to identify the deterministic seasonality in the data. The mean absolute per cent error (MAPE) is used to measure forecast accuracy. A low MAPE demonstrates the adequacy of the fitted SARIMA models. The results indicate that all series with first non-seasonal difference are needed to obtain the deterministic trend in outbound tourism series in Taiwan.

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OpenAlex reports 80 citations for this work. Citation counts describe recorded attention and do not establish research quality.

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Available abstract

This paper aims to determine suitable SARIMA models to forecast the monthly outbound tourism departures of three major destinations from Taiwan to Hong Kong, Japan and the USA, respectively. The HEGY test is used to identify the deterministic seasonality in the data. The mean absolute per cent error (MAPE) is used to measure forecast accuracy. A low MAPE demonstrates the adequacy of the fitted SARIMA models. The results indicate that all series with first non-seasonal difference are needed to obtain the deterministic trend in outbound tourism series in Taiwan.

Key concepts: Autoregressive integrated moving average, Mean absolute percentage error, Tourism, Seasonality, Econometrics, Statistics, Time series, Destinations

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