The Method of Forecasting the Population of Chinese Population Attractive Cities

This paper presents a method of forecasting the population of Chinese population attractive cities. In this model the overall population is divided into two main parts, floating population(the people who will live in the city for a long time but do not have household register) and local population. The increment of floating population is positively correlated with the increment of local GDP approximately. Leslie matrix is used to imitate the process of the local population growth. Four main factors, death rate, birth rate, the ratio of male to female, and the growth of the local economy are considered to forecast the local population and floating population separately. The method in this paper overcome these shortcomings of the former method that they cannot explain the inner changes of the population, and ignore the factor of migration. So this method will offer a basis for the science of population forecasting.