2012•The Annals of Applied ProbabilityOpen access

Risk measuring under model uncertainty

Jocelyne Bion–Nadal, Magali Kervarec

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Abstract

The framework of this paper is that of risk measuring under uncertainty which is when no reference probability measure is given. To every regular convex risk measure on $\mathcal{C}_{b}(\Omega)$, we associate a unique equivalence class of probability measures on Borel sets, characterizing the riskless nonpositive elements of $\mathcal{C}_{b}(\Omega)$. We prove that the convex risk measure has a dual representation with a countable set of probability measures absolutely continuous with respect to a certain probability measure in this class. To get these results we study the topological properties of the dual of the Banach space L1(c) associated to a capacity c. As application, we obtain that every G-expectation $\mathbb{E}$ has a representation with a countable set of probability measures absolutely continuous with respect to a probability measure P such that P(|f|) = 0 if and only iff $\mathbb{E}(|f|)=0$. We also apply our results to the case of uncertain volatility.

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The framework of this paper is that of risk measuring under uncertainty which is when no reference probability measure is given. To every regular convex risk measure on $\mathcal{C}_{b}(\Omega)$, we associate a unique equivalence class of probability measures on Borel sets, characterizing the riskless nonpositive elements of $\mathcal{C}_{b}(\Omega)$. We prove that the convex risk measure has a dual representation with a countable set of probability measures absolutely continuous with respect to a certain probability measure in this class. To get these results we study the topological properties of the dual of the Banach space L1(c) associated to a capacity c. As application, we obtain that every G-expectation $\mathbb{E}$ has a representation with a countable set of probability measures absolutely continuous with respect to a probability measure P such that P(|f|) = 0 if and only iff $\mathbb{E}(|f|)=0$. We also apply our results to the case of uncertain volatility.

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Available abstract

The framework of this paper is that of risk measuring under uncertainty which is when no reference probability measure is given. To every regular convex risk measure on $\mathcal{C}_{b}(\Omega)$, we associate a unique equivalence class of probability measures on Borel sets, characterizing the riskless nonpositive elements of $\mathcal{C}_{b}(\Omega)$. We prove that the convex risk measure has a dual representation with a countable set of probability measures absolutely continuous with respect to a certain probability measure in this class. To get these results we study the topological properties of the dual of the Banach space L1(c) associated to a capacity c. As application, we obtain that every G-expectation $\mathbb{E}$ has a representation with a countable set of probability measures absolutely continuous with respect to a probability measure P such that P(|f|) = 0 if and only iff $\mathbb{E}(|f|)=0$. We also apply our results to the case of uncertain volatility.

Key concepts: Probability measure, Mathematics, Absolute continuity, Banach space, Countable set, Measure (data warehouse), Borel set, Dual representation

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