The Relation Between Relative Order Imbalance and Intraday Futures Returns: An Application of the Quantile Regression Model to Taiwan

Adopting the quantile regression model, this paper describes the positive relation between relative order imbalance and intraday futures returns. The positive connection is relatively stronger for lower quantiles of intraday futures returns than for higher quantiles. However, the connection vanishes within 30 minutes. The results reflect the compensation of the uncertainty and the absence of liquidity for relatively lower returns in the Taiwan futures market. Furthermore, this paper finds evidence supporting an L-shaped pattern for intraday futures returns.