Maternal serum human chorionic gonadotropin as a marker for the delivery of low-birth-weight infants in women with unexplained elevations in maternal serum ?-fetoprotein

We wished to ascertain whether the measurement of maternal serum human chorionic gonadotropin (MShCG) in the serum of pregnant women with unexplained elevations of maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein (MSAFP) would more precisely define those women at risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes. MShCG was measured in samples of serum obtained from women in the second trimester of pregnancy who had elevated MSAFP, normal Level II ultrasounds, and normal fetal karyotypes. Based on the characteristics of a receiver-operator curve for MShCG and birth weight, patients were divided into two groups and pregnancy outcomes were compared. Pregnant women with an unexplained elevation in MSAFP, who also had an abnormal MShCG (< or = 0.5 MoM > or = 2.5) were at significantly greater risk of delivering a low-birth-weight infant compared to women with a normal MShCG (43% and 15%, respectively; P = 0.013). They were also more likely to deliver a preterm infant (48% and 11.9%), respectively; P = 0.001). In the prediction of low birth weight, an abnormal MShCG had a sensitivity of 50%, a specificity of 81%, and a positive predictive value of 43%; in the detection of preterm delivery the values were 59%, 88%, and 48%, respectively. These findings suggest that in pregnant women with a second trimester unexplained elevation in MSAFP, abnormal MShCG levels may identify a group of women at high risk of preterm delivery or delivery of a low-birth-weight infant.