Does Probability Guided Hysteroscopy Reduce Costs in Women Investigated for Postmenopausal Bleeding?

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate whether a model to predict a failed endometrial biopsy in women with postmenopausal bleeding (PMB) and a thickened endometrium can reduce costs without compromising diagnostic accuracy. DESIGN, SETTING, AND POPULATION: Model based cost-minimization analysis. METHODS: A decision analytic model was designed to compare two diagnostic strategies for women with PMB: (I) attempting office endometrial biopsy and performing outpatient hysteroscopy after failed biopsy and (II) predicted probability of a failed endometrial biopsy based on patient characteristics to guide the decision for endometrial biopsy or immediate hysteroscopy. Robustness of assumptions regarding costs was evaluated in sensitivity analyses. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Costs for the different strategies. RESULTS: At different cut-offs for the predicted probability of failure of an endometrial biopsy, strategy I was generally less expensive than strategy II. The costs for strategy I were always € 460; the costs for strategy II varied between € 457 and € 475. At a 65% cut-off, a possible saving of € 3 per woman could be achieved. CONCLUSIONS: Individualizing the decision to perform an endometrial biopsy or immediate hysteroscopy in women presenting with postmenopausal bleeding based on patient characteristics does not increase the efficiency of the diagnostic work-up.