Current Capabilities in Prediction at the National Weather Service's National Meteorological Center

Progress since 1955 in prognosis of synoptic-scale systems at the National Weather Service's National Meteorological Center (NMC) is reviewed. The application of numerical weather prediction (NWP) to the forecasting of specific weather parameters (e.g., temperature, precipitation, wind, etc.) is also discussed and the skill of these specific forecasts is reviewed. The limitations in overall forecasting skill are pointed out. In particular, the skill in prediction of heavy precipitation with current operational NWP models requires the meteorologist at the NMC to continue to play an important role in evaluating and improving the numerical product. Results are shown from experimental precipitation forecasts with finer-mesh models, which are being developed for future use at NMC.