Desertification, no‐change or alternative states: Can we trust simple models on livestock impact in dry rangelands?

Abstract. It is remarkable that after many thousands of years of pastoralism in arid and semi‐arid savannas, there is still no clear answer to the basic question: Does livestock grazing have more than a marginal effect on the dynamics of arid and semi‐arid land vegetation? A small study of semi‐arid savanna vegetation along a spatial gradient in grazing pressure, repeated three times over 19 years is used as a basis for discussing the behaviour of dry land vegetation under heavy grazing. Three basic theories are compared: (1) the theory that heavy grazing causes desertification; (2) the theory that heavy grazing causes no directed change in the vegetation of arid and semi‐arid rangelands; and (3) the theory that heavy grazing leads to a switch between alternative states of vegetation. On the basis of the current data the first two theories are rejected, but the conclusion is that there is much evidence for a more complex behaviour of dry rangelands under grazing than what is accommodated in any of the three theories. Probably, site‐specific properties including interactive and indirect effects of herbivory in the system are important for vegetation development under grazing in arid and semi‐arid rangelands.