The Formation and Early Evolution of the Greensburg, Kansas, Tornadic Supercell on 4 May 2007

Abstract During the evening of 4 May 2007, a large, powerful tornado devastated Greensburg, Kansas. The synoptic and mesoscale environments of the parent supercell that spawned this and other tornadoes are described from operational data. The formation and early evolution of this long-track supercell, within the context of its larger-scale environment, are documented on the basis of Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) data and mobile Doppler radar data. The storm produced tornadoes cyclically for about 30 min before producing a large, long-lived tornado. It is shown that in order to have forecasted the severe weather locations and times accurately, it would have been necessary to have predicted 1) the localized formation of an isolated convective storm near/east of a dryline, 2) the subsequent splitting and resplitting of the storm several times, 3) the growth of a new storm along the right-rear flank of an existing storm, and 4) the transition from the cyclic production of small tornadoes to the production of one, large, long-track tornado. It is therefore suggested that both extreme sensitivity to initial conditions associated with storm formation and the uncertainty of storm behavior made it unusually difficult to forecast this event accurately.