Research on the Relationship of ENSO and the Frequency of Extreme Precipitation Events in China
Wei Li, Panmao Zhai, Jinhui Cai
Abstract
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Wei Li, Panmao Zhai, Jinhui Cai
Abstract
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Based on a daily precipitation observation dataset of 743 stations in China from 1951–2004, the Γ distribution function is used to calculate the probability distribution of daily precipitation and to define extreme precipitation events. Based on this, the relationship of ENSO and the frequency of extreme precipitation events is studied. Results reveal that ENSO events have impact on extreme precipitation events, with different magnitudes at different regions and seasons. In general, during winter and spring, extreme precipitation events occur more often during El Niño events than during La Niña events. While during summer and autumn, the opposite is found. The relationship of a two season-lag ENSO and extreme precipitation frequency shows different pattern. Extreme precipitation events occur more often in several regions if an ENSO warm phase happened in the central-eastern tropical Pacific two seasons before. No similar impacts of El Niño and La Niña on the frequency of extreme precipitation events are found. Li, W., P. Zhai, and J. Cai, 2011: Research on the relationship of ENSO and the frequency of extreme precipitation events in China. Adv. Clim. Change Res., 2(2), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2011.00101.
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Based on a daily precipitation observation dataset of 743 stations in China from 1951–2004, the Γ distribution function is used to calculate the probability distribution of daily precipitation and to define extreme precipitation events. Based on this, the relationship of ENSO and the frequency of extreme precipitation events is studied. Results reveal that ENSO events have impact on extreme precipitation events, with different magnitudes at different regions and seasons. In general, during winter and spring, extreme precipitation events occur more often during El Niño events than during La Niña events. While during summer and autumn, the opposite is found. The relationship of a two season-lag ENSO and extreme precipitation frequency shows different pattern. Extreme precipitation events occur more often in several regions if an ENSO warm phase happened in the central-eastern tropical Pacific two seasons before. No similar impacts of El Niño and La Niña on the frequency of extreme precipitation events are found. Li, W., P. Zhai, and J. Cai, 2011: Research on the relationship of ENSO and the frequency of extreme precipitation events in China. Adv. Clim. Change Res., 2(2), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2011.00101.
Key concepts: Precipitation, Climatology, El Niño Southern Oscillation, Environmental science, China, Lag, Extreme value theory, Atmospheric sciences