Finland-Russia rail transport deregulation: future scenarios of market development

The European Union has opened rail freight transport to competition. Regulating third country bounded transports has been in EU member state government jurisdiction. However, the European Commission has expressed an interpretation that third country transports in the EU area should been seen as intra-EU transport, i.e., under competition. Also Russia is promoting competitiveness of rail transports and proceeding with competition. This research assesses EU-Russia rail transport competition from Finland’s perspective by using qualitative scenario analysis. Three different kinds of scenarios are constructed, and based on this research, it may be concluded that deregulating third country transport would be advisable. This would promote border transports, decrease prices, and attract and boost competition in Finland’s rail transport market.