The genetics of phenotypic plasticity. VI. Theoretical predictions for directional selection

Abstract We explore the effects of linear and quadratic reaction norms on heritability and directional selection. Genetic variation for reaction norm parameters can alter the heritability of traits; the magnitude of the heritability depends upon both the environment and the correlation among the parameters. Genetic variation for reaction norm parameters can alter the response to directional selection. Selection on a trait in one environment can shift both the mean of the trait measured across environments and the plasticity of the trait; the signs and magnitudes of these responses depend on the correlations among the parameters of the reaction norm. Our model is consistent with the results of ten experiments for selection on a trait in a single environment. In all experiments, selection towards the overall mean of the population always resulted in a relatively lower plasticity than selection away from the overall mean. Our model was able to predict the results of two experiments for selection on a trait index calculated over more than one environment. Predictions were good for the direct response to selection but poorer for the correlated response to selection. Our results indicate the need for more data on the effects of environment on genetic parameters, especially correlations among reaction norm parameters.