THE ROLE OF AGRICULTURAL GROUNDWATER CONSERVATION IN ACHIEVING ZERO OVERDRAFT IN ARIZONA1

ABSTRACT: The elimination of groundwater overdraft was a key feature of the 1980 Arizona Groundwater Management Act. To achieve this goal, the Arizona Department of Water Resources identified several Active Management Areas and developed urban, industrial, and agricultural water conservation plans. This study examines the reductions in groundwater use through agricultural water conservation in the Phoenix Active Management Area (AMA). Linear programming models are developed to analyze changes in groundwater use and net returns to agriculture over a 38‐year period, 1990 to 2025, for farming areas in the Phoenix AMA. Results indicate that the agricultural conservation program provides only modest groundwater savings under a wide range of scenarios. The low level of savings is partly due to the current economically efficient use of water. Other policy measures such as retiring agricultural land may be necessary if the Phoenix AMA is to meet its overdraft reduction goals; even if urban water conservation goals are met.