Choice of Varieties by Sri Lanka Rice Farmers: Comparing Alternative Decision Models

Abstract Sri Lanka rice farmers are faced with a choice between traditional and high‐yielding rice varieties. Three risky‐choice models are compared to explain producer behavior. Forty farmers with typically small rice areas were studied. Choice criteria compared were multiple (two)‐attribute utility maximization, single (profit)‐attribute utility maximization, and expected profit maximization. Expected utility maximization performed better than expected profit maximization: single‐attribute utility maximization outperformed the more complex multiattribute utility model. The importance of careful elicitation of subjective probability distributions is emphasized. Rice farmers appear to allocate their land between available technologies in an economically rational way.