APACHE Score, Severity Index of Paraquat Poisoning, and Serum Lactic Acid Concentration in the Prognosis of Paraquat Poisoning of Chinese Patients

Many prognostic indictors have been studied to evaluate the prognosis of paraquat poisoning. However, the optimal indicator remains unclear. To determine the value of the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) score, the Severity Index of Paraquat Poisoning (SIPP), and serum lactate levels in the prognosis of paraquat poisoning, we performed a prospective study that enrolled 143 paraquat patients. Data were collected from patients (161) at West China Hospital in Chengdu, China, including details about the patients' general conditions, laboratory examinations, and treatment. Receiver operating characteristic curves for predicting inpatient mortality based on APACHE II score, SIPP, and lactate levels were generated. To analyze the best cutoff values for lactate levels, APACHE II scores, and SIPP in predicting the prognosis of paraquat poisoning, the initial parameters on admission and 7-day survival curves of patients with lactate levels greater than or equal to 2.95 mmol/L, APACHE II score greater than or equal to 15.22, and SIPP greater than or equal to 5.50 h · mg/L at the time of arrival at West China Hospital were compared using the 1-way analysis of variance and the log-rank test. The APACHE II score (5.45 [3.67] vs 11.29 [4.31]), SIPP (2.78 [1.89] vs 7.63 [2.46] h · mg/L), and lactate level (2.78 [1.89] vs 7.63 [2.46] mmol/L) were significantly lower in survivors (77) after oral ingestion of paraquat, compared with nonsurvivors (66). The APACHE II score, SIPP, and lactate level had different areas under the curve (0.847, 0.789, and 0.916, respectively) and accuracy (0.64, 0.84, and 0.89, respectively). Respiratory rate, serum creatinine level, Paco2, and mortality rate at 7 days after admission in patients with lactate levels greater than or equal to 2.95 mmol/L were markedly different compared with those of other patients (P < 0.05). The predictive value of lactic acid was superior to that of APACHE II score and SIPP for acute oral paraquat poisoning.