Secular Trends in Incidence and 30-Day Case Fatality of Acute Pancreatitis in North Jutland County, Denmark: A Register-based Study from 1981-2000

BACKGROUND: The incidence rate of acute pancreatitis has been reported as having increased during recent decades in Western countries. Reported mortality lies around 10% and has improved during the past 20 years. The incidence rate and 30-day case fatality rate of acute pancreatitis in North Jutland County, Denmark were examined for the period 1981 to 2000. METHODS: Data were collected from the Hospital Discharge Registry of North Jutland County for the period 1981-2000. Sex- and age-standardized incidence rates and 30-day case fatality rate of a first attack of acute pancreatitis were calculated. Data on endoscopic procedures were assessed for the period 1992 to 2000 and on certain drugs for 1991 to 1999. RESULTS: The incidence rate of acute pancreatitis in women increased from 17.1 per 100,000 person-years in 1981 (95% confidence interval (CI), 12.6-23.2) to 37.8 per 100,000 person-years in 2000 (95% CI, 31.0-46.1). The corresponding increase in men was from 18 per 100,000 person-years in 1981 (95% CI, 13.3-24.2) to 27.1 per 100,000 person-years in 2000 (95% CI, 21.5-34.3). The incidence rate of acute pancreatitis increased with age in both sexes. The overall 30-day case fatality rate was 7.5% (95% CI, 6.5-8.7) increasing with age, adjusted odds ratio (OR) = 6.4 (95% CI, 3.5-11.6) and decreased with time, adjusted OR = 0.7 (95% CI, 0.4-1.0). CONCLUSION: The incidence of acute pancreatitis has increased, and in women surpassed that in men in 1999 and 2000. Short-term prognosis has improved.