Scientific and technological uncertainty, the precautionary principle, scenarios and risk management

Uncertainty, the precautionary principle and scenario are three important concepts in current regulatory debates concerned with risk management. In this paper, each concept is described in relation to its regulatory context and a linkage between the three concepts is established. Three scenarios relating to increasing scientific and technical uncertainty are presented. The most obvious regulatory approach to uncertainty is to ban a product, process or substance under the aegis of the precautionary principle. However, this may not be appropriate in all cases and a range of other possible policy responses to uncertainty are discussed and avenues for further research suggested.