Predictions of Radionuclide Dose Rates from Sellafield Discharges using a Compartmental Model

A multi-compartmental model (MIRMAID) of the Irish Sea has been used to predict radionuclide dose rates to the public, via seafood consumption pathways. Radionuclides originate from the authorised discharge of low level liquid effluent from the BNF plc nuclear reprocessing plant at Sellafield. The model has been used to predict combined annual doses, the contribution of dose from individual radionuclides and to discriminate dose between present day and historic discharges. An assessment has been carried out to determine the sensitivity of the predictions to changes in various model parameters. The predicted dose to the critical group from seafood consumption in 1995 ranged from 37-96 µSv of which the majority originated from current discharges. The contribution from 99Tc was predicted to have increased from 0.2% in 1993 up to 20% in 1995. The predicted contribution of Pu and Am from historic discharges is underestimated in the model.