Assessing the effectiveness of conservation management decisions: likely effects of new protection measures for Hector's dolphin (Cephalorhynchus hectori)

Abstract Fisheries bycatch affects many species of marine mammals, seabirds, turtles and other marine animals. New Zealand's endemic Hector's dolphins overlap with gillnet and trawl fisheries throughout their geographic range. The species is listed as Endangered by the IUCN. In addition, the North Island subspecies has been listed as Critically Endangered. Estimates of catch rates in commercial gillnets from an observer programme (there are no quantitative estimates of bycatch by amateur gillnetters or in trawl fisheries) were used in a simple population viability analysis to predict the impact of this fishery under three scenarios: Option (A) status‐quo management, (B) new regulations announced by the Minister of Fisheries in 2008 and (C) total protection. Uncertainty in estimates of population size and growth rate, number of dolphins caught and other model inputs are explicitly included in the analysis. Sensitivity analyses are carried out to examine the effect of variation in catch rate and the extent to which fishing effort is removed from protected areas but displaced to unprotected areas. These methods are applicable to many other situations in which animals are removed from populations, whether deliberately (e.g. fishing) or not (e.g. bycatch). The current Hector's dolphin population is clearly depleted, at an estimated 27% of the 1970 population. Population projections to 2050 under Options A and B predict that the total population is likely to continue declining. In the case of Option B this is driven mainly by continuing bycatch due to the much weaker protection measures on the South Island west coast. Without fishing mortality (Option C) all populations are projected to increase, with the total population approximately doubling by 2050 and reaching half of its 1970 population size in just under 40 years. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.