Development of a New Toll Mode-Choice Modeling System for Florida’s Turnpike Enterprise

The Florida Department of Transportation Turnpike Enterprise’s recent toll mode-choice model development activities are described. Because the simple toll travel forecasting analysis methods used were not adequate for reliably addressing contemporary toll study issues, there was a need for toll modeling innovations that address trip makers’ toll route decisions as a mode-choice step sensitive to changes in service levels by time of day, trip purpose, and socioeconomic attributes. Innovations developed for Florida’s turnpike began with data-collection efforts and toll model development for the Central Florida (Orlando) region. This represents the next generation of modeling system. Similar efforts are under way for the Miami–Fort Lauderdale area. The Orlando region toll mode-choice model, which is in its final validation phase, includes a statistically estimated nested mode-choice modeling system with a discrete choice for toll travel. The models were developed for a combination of four periods and four trip purposes, including visitor trips. Other key features are ( a) a pre-mode-choice time-of-day process; ( b) a generalized cost-assignment procedure that uses travel time and costs by time of day (rather than travel time alone); ( c) production of zone-to-zone travel time and costs consistent with travel paths; and ( d) a feedback loop process that uses an iterative successive averaging procedure to estimate travel times.