AN APPLICATION OF COMPUTER GRAPHICS TO ANALYSIS OF EXTREMES1

ABSTRACT: A convenient method for the statistical analysis of hydrologic extremes is to use probability papers to fit selected theoretical distributions to extremal observations. Three commonly accepted statistical distributions of extreme hydrologic events are: the double exponential distribution, the bounded exponential distribution, and the Log Pearson Type III distribution. In most cases, probability papers are distribution specific. But, for the Log Pearson Type III distribution, the probability paper is characterized by a population‐specific parameter, namely, the coefficient of skewness. It is not practicable to procure probability papers for all possible values of this parameter. Therefore, a computer program is developed to generate population‐specific probability papers and to perform statistical analysis of the data using computer graphics. Probability papers covering return periods up to 1000 years or more are generated for the three distributions mentioned above. Using a plot routine, available extremal observations are plotted on selected probability papers and a linear regression analysis is used to fit a straight line to the data. Predictions of hydrologic extremes for higher recurrence intervals can be made by extrapolating the fitted straight lines.