Manyara Regional and District Projections

This report presents population projections for the period 2003 to 2025 for the Manyara Region and its districts. The projections were made using the Cohort Component Method (Spectrum System), whereby three components responsible for population change, namely: mortality, fertility and migration are projected separately as well as HIV/AIDS prevalence. The projected components are then applied to 2002 midyear base population in order to come up with the desired projections from 2003 to 2025. The report gives mortality, fertility, migration and HIV/AIDS assumptions, which depicts Manyara’s demographic and socio-economic future trends. The results include estimated population by sex in single years and five-year age groups as well as some demographic indicators. Population growth for the period 2003 to 2025 shows an increase in growth rates. The projections show that population growth rate will increase from 3.9 percent in 2003 (with a population of 1,075,022) to 4.2 percent in 2025 (with a population of 2,483,873). Sex Ratio at birth is projected to decrease from 105 male births per 100 females in 2003 to 103 male births per 100 females in 2025. Mortality estimates show that Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) is expected to decline for both sexes from 62 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2003 to 31 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2025. Under Five Mortality Rate (U5MR) for both sexes will also decline from 96 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2003 to 42 deaths per 1,000 live births in the year 2025. The mortality projected estimates further show that the life expectancy at birth for females is higher compared to that of males, which is expected. Life expectancy at birth for Manyara will increase from 61 years in 2003 to 68 years in 2025 for both sexes. For male population, life expectancy at birth will increase from 60 years in year 2003 to 66 years in 2025, while for female population the life expectancy at birth will increase from 62 years in 2003 to 69 years in 2025. On fertility, TFR will increase from 6.4 children per woman in 2003 to 6.8 children per woman in 2025.