Old and new partners: Similarity and competition in the EU foreign agri-food trade1

This paper analyses the trade relationships among the EU-15 members and some emerging partners: the NMS, Turkey and China. The EU expansion to include 10 new countries has modified quite remarkably the features of agri-food trade in Europe. Some of the NMS, such as Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic, significantly contribute to the international agri-food trade and, since the beginning of the process of EU accession, they have modified dramatically the exchanges with the EU-15. More recently, other countries such as Turkey and China have established new relationships with the EU. Turkey is a large Mediterranean country and, as a candidate to the EU accession, enjoys a differential treatment in the agri-food trade relationships with the EU. China can be considered as a new international competitor, growing at faster pace after having joined the WTO and increasing its agri-food trade exchanges with the EU. The analysis will focus on the measurement of the similarity of the agri-food exports of Italy and the remaining EU-15 member States with the new partners entering the EU-15 market. It will be carried out with the support of three different indicators: the export structure similarity index (ES), the product similarity index (PSI) and the quality similarity index (QSI), using the Eurostat database with an eight “digit” merchandize disaggregation and with reference only to agri-food exchanges. Results will indicate that there is little similarity, especially when a comparison is made between the exports of the EU-15 countries to the EU market. Moreover, quality remains a crucial factor for Italian and European agri-food products when competing with external products.