Colposcopy Prediction of Progression in Human Papillomavirus Infections With Minor Cervical Lesions

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the risk of progression to cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) grade 2 or 3 in women with positive human papillomavirus (HPV) testing and low-grade (low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions), borderline (atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance), or no cervical lesions, and to determine the accuracy of initial colposcopy to predict progression. METHODS: Women with HPV infection and low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions, atypical squamous cells, or normal cytology were recruited and grouped according to cytologic or histologic diagnosis. Exclusion criteria were histologic CIN 2 or 3, previous cervical cancer and HPV infection, cervical disease, or treatment for CIN 2 or 3 in the past 3 years. Four-hundred sixty-five women were included and monitored by cytology, Hybrid Capture-2 test, and colposcopy every 6 months. Colposcopy results were described as normal, with minor or major changes, and lesion size was recorded in quadrants. RESULTS: Forty-three women (9.3%) had progression to CIN 2 or 3. No significant differences were found in rate of progression between women with low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions, atypical squamous cells, or negative results (8.2%, 13.4%, and 9.8%, respectively; P=.679). Neither colposcopy pattern (P=.284) nor lesion size (P=.170) at recruitment provided any information on the risk of progression. History of cervical lesion and worsening of the colposcopy pattern during follow-up were associated with progression (P<.001). CONCLUSION: Initial colposcopy findings do not provide relevant information on the risk of progression in HPV-positive women with minor or no cervical lesions. These women have a similar risk of progression and should benefit from the same follow-up strategies.