Passenger Car Ownership Estimation toward 2030 in Japan

The estimation of passenger car ownership is a crucial estimation for auto-related production and for the analysis of many transportation-related policies such as Green House Gas (GHG), emissions, and energy consumption policies. Previous studies of car ownership estimation have generally focused on accurate adherence to the track record, statistical signification, or model structure; however, there are problems in focusing on all these factors together. The purpose of our passenger car ownership estimation model with the Business as Usual scenario —JARI BAU Model—. JARI BAU Model is to estimate passenger car ownership by resolving these difficulties. Our passenger car ownership estimation model with the JARI BAU Model for the demand function is intended to provide information on the total passenger car ownership in Japan from the present time until the year 2030. This paper is unique in that it attempts to estimate car ownership solely on the basis of socioeconomic trends, without including the physical characteristics of automobiles such as fuel economy, vehicle age, or infrastructure development. The BAU model estimates 57.28 million passenger vehicles in 2010 and 61.59 million in 2030. The estimation model improves both the accuracy and statistical estimation.JEL Classification: C32, C51, R41, N35, J11