Dynamic Equilibrium in Markets for Perennial Crops

Abstract A dynamic equilibrium model for perennial crop markets is formulated. Price expectations are formed according to perfect foresight, and both the age composition of the crop and the optimal rotation are determined endogenously. The model is applied to the California alfalfa market. The calculated long‐run equilibrium acreage is quite close to average acreage over the base period. The results also exhibit cyclical fluctuations in acreage with a six percent coefficient of variation. Thus, cyclical behavior can arise from technical characteristics of the production process as well as from imperfectly formed expectations or random exogenous shocks.