Balancing the Tradeoffs between Ecological and Economic Risks for the Great Barrier Reef: A Pragmatic Conceptual Framework

Coral reefs are threatened globally by the climatic consequences of rising atmospheric CO2 levels; in many regions they are also threatened locally, for example, by reductions in the water quality of runoff from adjacent catchments. Interaction between global and local pressures makes it possible to use local actions to mitigate the impacts of climate change. To this end, managers and policy-makers are seeking to implement agricultural land management regimes that improve runoff water quality and thereby reduce risks to the Great Barrier Reef. Although components of the Great Barrier Reef Region have been researched for some time, a systemic approach capable of representing the Region's key functional relationships as a social–ecological system is lacking. Here we provide a conceptual framework of the Great Barrier Reef social–ecological system that identifies a range of complex socioeconomic tradeoffs that may be required to maintain resilient reefs under climate change. The conceptual framework is the first step toward development of a functional analytical tool that is capable of helping policy-makers choose between alternative management actions.