Transition Problems in Policy Reform: Agricultural Trade Liberalization in India

Abstract What will be the domestic growth and distributional effects of agricultural trade liberalization in India? How fast should Indian agriculture be liberalized and what policies should characterize the transition? This paper uses Indian agriculture to analyze medium‐term transition problems that arise in many major economic reforms. Employing a dynamic applied general‐equilibrium model, the paper focuses on the implications for policy design of the absence of efficient capital and labor markets and on the distributional consequences of economic reform in the presence of realistic limits on available intervention instruments. The key finding is that trade adjustment should be supplemented by policies that raise land productivity and, because this takes time, the adjustment should be gradual.