Population Ratios and Prejudice: Modelling Both Contact and Threat Effects

Are small or large outgroup populations more closely related to an ingroup's prejudice? This paper addresses this question with national probability survey data from Germany focused on resident foreigners. Two interlocking processes underlie the complex relationship between population proportions and prejudice. Typically, larger outgroup population proportions simultaneously increase both threat and intergroup contact. The first process increases prejudice, the second decreases it. Using structural equation modelling, our analysis reveals that these two processes can be effectively combined into one complex model. Threat is perceptual; it involves what people think is the outgroup proportion and thus can be easily manipulated by political leaders and the mass media. Contact is experiential; it can reduce individual and collective threat as well as prejudice. The intricate relationship between threat and contact can be substantially altered by numerous moderators. Hence, rigid group segregation can limit contact, while unemployment can amplify threat. The paper provides evidence that reductions in prejudice have important consequences for intergroup relations.