Factors that Influence the Growth of Chinese Domestic Tourism Arrivals (1985–2007) – An Empirical Research Based on the VAR Model

Using a VAR (vector autoregression) model, in which the Granger Causality Test, the Impulse Response Function and the Variance Decomposition are adopted, the factors affecting the growth of Chinese domestic tourism arrivals from 1985 to 2007 are analyzed. The research reveals the following results: that the most influential factors on the growth of Chinese domestic tourism arrivals include income and transportation, whereas the leave policy proved not to be so relevant. Establishment of social mechanisms to guide travel and to strengthen tourism infrastructure construction are proposed to promote the further growth of Chinese domestic tourism arrivals.