Calibration and Validation of HSPF Mode1 to Estimate the Pollutant Loads from Rural Small Watershed

본 연구에서는 미국 환경청에서 개발하여 유역 오염총량관리를 위한 수질모형으로 이용되고 있는 HSPF 모형을 선정하여 발안 HP#6 시험유역을 대상으로 모형의 적용성을 분석하였다. HSPF모형을 이용하여 HP#6 시험유역에서 모형의 보정기간인 1996년부터 1997년까지 유출량을 모의한 결과, RMSE는 2.1mm, RMAE는 0.4mm, $R^2$ 는 0.92로 모의되었으며, 모형의 검정기간인 1999년부터 2000년의 모의 결과 RMSE는 6.03mm, RMAE는 0.49mm, $R^2$ 는 0.84로 모의되었다. 총질소에 대한 모형의 보정결과 RMSE는 0.086kg/ha/day, RMAE는 0.534kg/ha/day, $R^2$ 는 0.81로 나타났으며, 모형의 검정결과 RMSE는 0.326kg/ha/day, RMAE는 0.708kg/ha/day, $R^2$ 는 0.43으로 분석되었다. 총인에 대한 모형의 보정 결과 RMSE는 0.012 kg/ha/day, RMAE는 0.622kg/ha/day, $R^2$ 는 0.70으로 모의되었으며, 모형의 검정결과 RMSE는 0.063kg/ha/day, RMAE는 2.269kg/ha/day, $R^2$ 는 0.76으로 분석되었다. In this paper, the Hydrologic Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) was validated to estimate the pollutant loads from rural small watershed. The study watershed was the HP#6 subwatershed in Balhan reservoir watershed, located southwest from Suwon. The drainage area of HP#6 study watershed was 3.85 $\textrm{km}^2$ . Parameters of the HSPF model related to hydrology and water quality were calibrated from 1996 to 1997, and validated from 1999 to 2000 using observed hydrologic and water quality data. The average simulated runoff ratio for the calibration period was 0.579 and the measured runoff ratio was 0.583. The root mean square error (RMSE) for runoff during the calibration period was 2.1mm and correlation coefficient ( $R^2$ ) was 0.92. Regarding the total nitrogen simulation, the RMSE was 0.086kg/ha/day and $R^2$ was 0.81 for the calibration period. In the case of total phosphorus, the RMSE was 0.012kg/ha/day and $R^2$ was 0.70 for the calibration period.