US federal redistributive income policies

The purpose of this paper is to present a statiscial model of inequality that allows us to analyse simultaneously the impact of several major redistributive expenditure policies, as well as analysing the impact of income taxation on inequality. The paper includes multivariate exogeeity tests to determine whether the policies have ‘caused’ the observed income distribution or if there is feedback, i.e. inequality in the distribution has lead to enhanced (or diminished) redistributive policies. The direction of causality for these policies has not, to ourr knowledge, been previously examined. This paper examines the usual redistributive vehicles of transfer payments, Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, as well as analysing the impact of the personal income tax system on inequality. Using time series analysis we can allow for lagged effects of these policies as well as current period effects. This lagged effects specification may be sugggestive of behavioural responses to policy changes.