Regionality of monsoon onset in South America: a three‐stage conceptual model

Abstract The evolution of monsoon onset across South America has complex temporal and regional variability that are controlled by local and remote land–ocean–atmosphere processes. In this study, a three‐stage conceptual model for the onset of the South American monsoon season is proposed based on a rain threshold analysis and a rotated empirical orthogonal function (REOF) analysis of the Global Precipitation Climatology Project version 2 (GPCP‐v2) dataset. This two‐pronged approach allowed the identification of regions of South America that share a common seasonal cycle of rainfall variability and likely have a common mechanism for monsoon onset. According to this model, the first stage of onset starts around pentad 59 (October 18–22) when precipitation begins in the northwestern part of the continent and gradually progresses towards the south and southeast. The second stage is marked by the abrupt establishment of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ). This stage occurs on average around pentad 61 (October 28–November 1). The third stage of monsoon onset involves the late arrival of the monsoon to the mouth of the Amazon River, associated with the slow migration of the Atlantic Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). This final stage of onset occurs on average by pentad 73 (December 27–31). This three‐stage model of onset provides a useful framework for the study of regional differences in monsoon onset mechanisms, a subject that is further explored in two companion studies. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society